Rigetti's $20 million 2026 outlook hinges on one customer acceptance

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) said it expects 2026 revenue of about $20 million, of which $10.9 million was recorded in the first nine months, and that the outlook assumes one customer accepts a system in the fourth quarter. The company gave the figure in its third-quarter results release on November 10. It leaves about $9.1 million to be recorded in the last three months of the year.

The customer is India’s Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC). It ordered a 108-qubit quantum computer for $8.4 million in January 2026, Rigetti said at the time.

Third-quarter revenue was $1.4 million, down from $1.9 million a year earlier and after about $9.5 million across the first two quarters of 2026, according to the release and the company’s quarterly filing.

The operating loss for the quarter was $33.2 million. The net loss was much smaller, $3.1 million, because of two items that are not part of running the business: a $25.3 million non-cash gain from revaluing warrants the company has outstanding, and $4.8 million of interest income, the filing shows. Rigetti ended September with $497.1 million in cash and investments and no debt.

What did Rigetti say about its machines?

Rigetti builds superconducting quantum computers, which run on chips cooled to near absolute zero. A qubit is the basic unit such a machine computes with, and more qubits with fewer errors means it can take on bigger problems. Rigetti said its 108-qubit system, Cepheus-1, reached 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity, the goal it had set. Gate fidelity measures how often an operation on a pair of qubits gives the right result, so 99.5% means about one error in 200 operations. These are the company’s own measurements.

The next target is a system of more than 300 qubits at about 99.7% fidelity by mid-2028, followed by about 1,000 qubits at about 99.9% “within approximately three years”, the release said.

What is the Commerce Department agreement?

In September 2026 Rigetti signed a definitive agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for an award of up to $100 million under the CHIPS Act, according to the release. The money supports three research programs. As a condition, the Department received a minority, non-controlling equity stake. The quarterly filing shows 7.74 million shares issued under the award during the quarter, about 2.3% of the 342.8 million shares outstanding on November 6.

Why it matters

• Company: Rigetti Computing (RGTI), valued at about $4.2 billion at the November 10 Nasdaq close of $12.15 (price from Yahoo Finance), on the share count in the quarterly filing.
• Rigetti needs about $9.1 million of revenue in the fourth quarter to reach its outlook. The C-DAC order was for $8.4 million. The release says the outlook assumes C-DAC’s acceptance, and the revenue that goes with it, in the fourth quarter. It does not say how much of the order that is.
• Cash and investments of $497.1 million equal about 15 quarters of the third quarter’s operating loss.
• Timing: Rigetti’s previous fourth-quarter results were covered on March 5, 2026. After that, the first roadmap date is mid-2028.

The Many Worlds Team

Last checked 2026-11-11

Sources

• Rigetti Computing, third-quarter 2026 results release, November 10, 2026, as carried by The Quantum Insider: https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/11/11/rigetti-q3-2026-results-quantum-computing-roadmap/
• Rigetti Computing, Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, filed November 10, 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926125161/rgti-20260930x10q.htm
• Rigetti Computing, order from C-DAC, January 20, 2026: https://www.rigetti.com/news/rigetti-announces-order-for-a-108-qubit-quantum-computer-from-indias-centre-for-development-of-advanced-computing-c-dac
• The Quantum Insider on Rigetti’s 2025 annual results, March 5, 2026: https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/03/05/rigetti-posts-216-million-annual-loss-while-expanding-quantum-system-deployments/